Reliability Modeling of PV Farm Using Markov Model
Subject Areas : electrical and computer engineering
V.
Khaligh
1
(Ferdosi University)
H.
Monsef
2
(University of Tehran)
Keywords: ReliabilityPV farmMarkov modelsimulation,
Abstract :
Utilization of photovoltaic units in power networks and their participation in the power supply has increased in recent years. Total world capacity of PV units has grown exponentially from 1.5 GW in 2000 to about 300 GW in 2016. This paper presents an analytical method for evaluating the reliability of large photovoltaic farms with regard to the changes in input power and reliability indices of unit components. The proposed method is not only capable of estimating the annual energy production of the photovoltaic units, but also able to calculate the system reliability indices. With Markov approach, Frequency and Duration method is utilized in order to model a photovoltaic farm similar to the multistate conventional units. Probability, frequency and transition rate of each state is obtained using the statistical data of solar radiation as well as operational characteristics of a photovoltaic unit. Due to the large number of solar radiation and PV modules operational states, k-means clustering algorithm is used for data classification. This analytical method is applied to the RBTS to demonstrate the effectiveness of developed approach. Capacity credit using LOLF index, is more than what obtained in the case of LOLE index. This observation can be explained through the variable nature of solar radiation in comparison with conventional units. Hence there is a need to obtain a model which reflects the frequency based reliability indices of PV systems.
[1] "Renewables 2018 global status report," REN21 Renewable Energy Policy Network, Worldwatch Institute, 2018.
[2] P. Zhang, W. Li, S. Li, Y. Wang, and W. Xiao, "Reliability assessment of photovoltaic power systems: review of current status
. [3] and future perspectives," Applied Energy, vol. 104, pp. 822-833, Apr. 2018.
[4] L. H. Stember, W. R. Huss, and M. S. Bridgman, "A methodology for photovoltaic system reliability & economic analysis," IEEE J., vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 296-303, Aug. 1982.
[5] S. V. Dhople and A. D. Dominguez-Garcia, "Estimation of photovoltaic system reliability and performance metrics," IEEE J., vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 554-563, Feb. 2012.
[6] P. Zhang, Y. Wang, W. Xiao, and W. Li, "Reliability evaluation of grid-connected photovoltaic power systems," Sustainable Energy, IEEE J., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 379-389, Jul. 2012.
[7] J. Park, W. Liang, J. Choi, A. A. El-Keib, M. Shahidehpour, and R. Billinton, "A probabilistic reliability evaluation of a power system including solar/photovoltaic cell generator," in Proc. IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting., 6 pp., Calgary, AB, Canada 26-28 Jul. 2009.
[8] R. Karki, A. Alferidi, and R. Billinton, "Reliability modeling for evaluating the contribution of photovoltaics in electric power systems," in Proc. 37th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conf., PVSC'11, pp. 1811-1816, Seattle, WA, USA, 19-24 Jun. 2011.
[9] F. Castro Sayas and R. N. Allan, "Generation availability assessment of wind farms," IEE Proc. Generation, Transmission and Distribution, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 507-518, Sept. 1996.
[10] A. P. Leite, C. L. T. Borges, and D. M. Falcao, "Probabilistic wind farms generation model for reliability studies applied to Brazilian sites," Power Systems, IEEE J., vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 1493-1501, Nov. 2006.
[11] A. S. Dobakhshari and M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, "A reliability model of large wind farms for power system adequacy studies," Energy Conversion, IEEE J., vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 792-801, Sept. 2009.
[12] ش. دهقان و ن. امجدی، "برنامه‌ریزی غیر قطعی توسعه چندساله سیستم قدرت با در نظر گرفتن مزرعه‌های بادی به کمک ترکیب برنامه‌ریزی تصادفی و معیار حداقل- حداکثر پشیمانی،" مجله مدل‌سازی در مهندسی، سال 14، شماره 47، صص. 50-41، زمستان 1395.
[13] م. رخشانی‌مهر، م. راشکی، م. میری و م. اژدری مقدم، "ارزیابی قابلیت اطمینان قاب‌های خمشی فلزی با استفاده از روش شبیه‌سازی وزنی و درون‌یابی تابع پایه شعاعی،" مجله مدل‌سازی در مهندسی، سال 14، شماره 47، صص. 32-21، زمستان 1395.
[14] م. ر. مزیدی شرف‌آبادی و ا. ر. فقیه خراسانی، "مقایسه تجربی و عددی مقدار تشعشع دریافتی خورشیدی بر یک سقف گنبدی‌شکل با یک سقف مسطح،" مجله مدل‌سازی در مهندسی، سال 13، شماره 43، صص. 24-15، زمستان 1394.
[15] M. Theristis and I. A. Papazoglou, "Markovian reliability analysis of standalone photovoltaic systems incorporating repairs," IEEE J., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 414-422, Jan. 2014.
[16] A. Ahadi, N.Ghadimi, and D. Mirabbasi, "Reliability assessment for components of large scale photovoltaic systems," J. of Power Sources, vol. 264, pp. 211-219, 15 Oct. 2014.
[17] L. H. Koh, W. Peng, K. J. Tseng, and G. ZhiYong, "Reliability evaluation of electric power systems with solar photovoltaic & energy storage," in Proc. Int. IEEE Conf. on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS'14, pp. 130-141, Durham, UK, 7-10 , Jul. 2014.
[18] F. Spinato, P. J. Tavner, G. J. W. van Bussel, and E. Koutoulakos, "Reliability of wind turbine subassemblies," IET Renewable Power Generation, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 387-401, Dec. 2009.
[19] Z. M. Salameh, B. S. Borowy, and A. R. A. Amin, "Photovoltaic module-site matching based on the capacity factors," IEEE J. Energy Conversion, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 326-332, Jun. 1995.
[20] B. S. Borowy and Z. M. Salameh, "Optimum photovoltaic array size for a hybrid wind/PV system," Energy Conversion, IEEE J., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 482-488, Sept. 1994.
[21] S. H. Karaki, R. B. Chedid, and R. Ramadan, "Probabilistic performance assessment of autonomous solar-wind energy conversion systems," IEEE J. Energy Conversion, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 766-772, Sept. 1999.
[22] R. Billinton and R. N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems-Concepts and Techniques, Plenum Press New York, 1992.
[23] C. M. Bishop, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning, vol. 4, Springer New York, 2006.
[24] R. Xu and D. Wunsch, "Survey of clustering algorithms," IEEE J. Neural Networks, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 645-678, May 2005.
[25] M. Ramezani, C. Singh, and M. R. Haghifam, "Role of clustering in the probabilistic evaluation of TTC in power systems including wind power generation," IEEE J. Power Systems, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 849-858, May 2009.
[26] P. Poggi, G. Notton, M. Muselli, and A. Louche, "Stochastic study of hourly total solar radiation in Corsica using a Markov model," J. of Climatology, vol. 20, no. 14, pp. 1843-1860, 30 Nov. 2000.
[27] D. Niyato, E. Hossain, and A. Fallahi, "Analysis of different sleep and wakeup strategies in solar powered wireless sensor networks," in IEEE Int. Conf. Proc. Communications, ICC'06. vol. 7, pp. 3333-3338, Istanbul, Turkey, 11-15 Jun. 2006.
[28] M. Miozzo, D. Zordan, P. Dini, and M. Rossi, "Solarstat: modeling photovoltaic sources through stochastic Markov processes," in Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. Energy Conf., ENERGYCON'14, pp. 688-695, Cavtat, Croatia, 13-16 May 2014.
[29] J. P. Coelho and J. Boaventura-Cunha, "Long term solar radiation forecast using computational intelligence methods," Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing, vol. 2014, Article ID 729316, 2014.
[30] M. R. Patel, Wind and Solar Power Systems, CRC Press, 1999.
[31] M. K. C. Marwali, M. Haili, S. M. Shahidehpour, and K. H. Abdul-Rahman, "Short term generation scheduling in photovoltaic-utility grid with battery storage," IEEE J. Power Systems, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 1057-1062, Aug. 1998.
[32] R. H. Liang and J. H. Liao, "A fuzzy-optimization approach for generation scheduling with wind and solar energy systems," Power Systems, IEEE J., vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 1665-1674, Nov. 2007.
[33] R. Billinton and R. N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems, (vol. 2) Plenum Press New York, 1984.
[34] M. Ito, K. Kato, K. Komoto, T. Kichimi, and K. Kurokawa, "A comparative study on cost and life‐cycle analysis for 100 MW very large‐scale PV (VLS‐PV) systems in deserts using m‐Si, a‐Si, CdTe, and CIS modules," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 17-30, 2008.
[35] و. خلیق، ح. منصف و ا. باقری، "روشی جدید برای مدل‌سازی قابلیت اطمینان شبکه فتوولتائیک،" بیست و هفتمین کنفرانس سیستم قدرت، صص. 35-25، تهران، ایران، آبان 1391.
[36] R. Billinton, S. Kumar, N. Chowdhury, K. Chu, K. Debnath, L. Goel, and J. Oteng-Adjei, "A reliability test system for educational purposes-basic data," Power Systems, IEEE J., vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 1238-1244, Aug. 1989.
[37] R. Billinton and W. Li, Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods, New York: Plenum, p. 300, 1994.
[38] A. C. G. Melo, M. V. F. Pereira, and A. M. Leite da Silva, "A conditional probability approach to the calculation of frequency and duration indices in composite reliability evaluation," Power Systems, IEEE J., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 1118-1125, Aug. 1993.