ارزيابي احتمالاتي قابليت تبادل کلي شبکه‌هاي انتقال در حضور مزرعه‌هاي بادي
محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی برق و کامپیوترمريم رمضاني 1 * , محمودرضا حقی‌فام 2 , حسین سیفی 3 , محسن پارسامقدم 4
1 - دانشگاه بیرجند
2 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
4 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
کلید واژه: تحليل ريسکدسته‌بندي داده‌هاشبيه‌سازي مونت‌کارلوقابليت تبادل شبکه‌هاي انتقالمزرعه بادي,
چکیده مقاله :
اخيراً توليد برق از باد به‌عنوان يک منبع انرژي تجديد‌پذير در بسياري از کشورها مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. با روند رو به افزايش نفوذ مزرعه‌های بادي در سيستمهاي قدرت، اصلاح روش‌هاي موجود ارزيابي و مديريت اين سيستم‌ها امري اجتناب‌‌ناپذير است. بررسي قابليت تبادل شبکه انتقال يکي از مطالعات مهم در سيستمهاي قدرت تجديدساختار يافته است که به‌منظور ارزيابي حد تبادل توان ميان نواحي سيستم از طريق شبکه و مديريت تبادلات آتي انجام مي‌شود. در اين مقاله چگونگی ارزيابي احتمالاتي قابليت تبادل در سيستمهاي قدرت چندناحيه‌اي برخوردار از مزرعه‌هاي بادي مطرح مي‌شود. ابتدا روش کلی ارزیابی با استفاده از شبيه‌سازي مونت‌کارلو، با لحاظ تغییرات بار شبکه و توان خروجي مزرعه بادي مطرح می‌گردد. در هر تکرار شبيه‌سازي، قابلیت تبادل با استفاده از برنامه‌ريزي رياضي مبتني بر پخش بار بهينه محاسبه مي‌شود. سپس تغییرات احتمالاتی قابلیت تبادل برای یک سطح بار ثابت مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و استفاده از تحليل ريسک به‌عنوان ابزار تصميم‌گيري و سنجش پيشنهاد می‌شود. در ادامه تغییرات توأم باد و بار برای ارزیابی قابلیت تبادل لحاظ‌شده و کاربرد روش دسته‌بندي اطلاعات در کاهش واریانس شبيه‌سازي مونت‌کارلو مطرح مي‌شود. کارايي روش‌هاي پيشنهادي با استفاده از شبکه آزمون 24 باسه IEEE - RTS مورد بحث قرار مي‌گيرد.
, wind farms are used to generate electric power in some parts of the world. With increasing penetration level of wind farms in electric power systems, modification of current tools to evaluate and manage the system is an important issue. Evaluation of total transfer capability (TTC) is one of the considerable tools in restructured power systems which is used to schedule future transactions between areas in multi area power systems to ensure security of network. In this paper, a method is proposed for probabilistic evaluation of TTC of multi area power systems in the presence of wind farms. Firstly, a general approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate a system state considering system load and power output of wind farm and optimal power flow (OPF) is used to calculate TTC level for each state. Then risk analysis is used as a decision making tool to determine the appropriate TTC level for a fixed system load level. Finally, both of system load and power output of wind farm are considered and clustered input data are used to accelerate Monte Carlo convergence speed. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches IEEE-RTS is used.
[1] R. Karki, P. Hu, and R. Bilinton, "A simplified wind power generation model for reliability evaluation," IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 533-540, Jun. 2006.
[2] T. Ackerman, Wind Power in Power Systems, John Wiley & Sons, 2005.
[3] K. S. Kook, K. J. McKenzie, Y. Liu, and S. Atcitty, "A study on applications of energy storage for the wind power operation in power systems," IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, pp 18-22, Jun. 2006.
[4] R. Bilinton and B. Bai, "Generating capacity adequacy associated with wind energy," IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 91, no. 3, pp. 641-646, Sep. 2004.
[5] B. C. Ummels, M. Gibescu, E. Pelgrum, W. L. Kling, and A. J. Brand, "Impact of wind power on thermal generation unit commitment and dispatch," IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 44-51, Mar. 2007.
[6] R. Billinton and W. Wangdee, "Reliability - based transmission reinforcement planning associated with large - scale wind farms," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 22, no. 1, pp. 34-41, Feb. 2007.
[7] G. W. Ault, K. R. W. Bell, and S. J. Galloway, "Calculation of economic transmission connection capacity for wind power generation," IET, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 61-69, Mar. 2007.
[8] A. E. Feijdoo and J. Cidras, "Modeling of wind farms in the load flow analysis," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 15, no. 1, pp. 110-115, Feb. 2000.
[9] North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), Available Transfer Capability Definitions and Determination, NERC Report, Jun. 1996.
[10] E. Audomvongseree and A. Yokoyama, "Consideration of an Appropriate TTC by Probabilistic Approach," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 19, no. 1, pp. 375-383, Feb. 2004.
[11] G. C. Ejebe, J. G. Waight, M. Sanots - Nieto, and W. F. Tinney, "Fast calculation of linear available transfer capability," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 1112-1116. Aug. 2000.
[12] S. Grijalva, P. W. Sauer, and J. D. Weber, "Enhancement of linear ATC calculations by the incorporation of reactive power flows," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 1112-1116, May 2003.
[13] F. Xia and A. P. S. Meliopoulos, "A methodology for probabilistic simultaneous transfer capability analysis," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 1269-1278, Aug. 1996.
[14] Y. Xiao and Y. H. Song, "Available transfer capability (ATC) evaluation by stochastic programming," IEEE Power Engineering Review, vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 50-52, Sep. 2000.
[15] R. F. Chang, C. Y. Tsai, C. L. Su, and C. N. Lu, "Method for computing probability distributions of available transfer capability," in IEE Proc. -Gener, Transm, Distrb., vol. 149, no. 4, pp. 427-431, Jul. 2002.
[16] A. B. Rodrigues and M. G. Da Silva, "Probabilistic assessment of available transfer capability based on Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 484-492, Feb. 2007.
[17] W. Li, P. Wang, and Z. Guo, "Determination of optimal total transfer capability using a probabilistic approach," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 21, no. 2, pp. 862-868, May 2006.
[18] C. Singh and Y. Kim, "An efficient technique for reliability analysis of power systems including time dependent sources," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 1090-1096, Aug. 1988.
[19] D. Fogel, "An introduction to simulated evolutionary optimization," IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 3-14, Jan. 1994.
[20] J. Peña, J. Lozano, and P. Larrañaga, "An empirical comparison of four initialization methods for the K-means algorithm," Pattern Recognition Letter., vol. 20, no. 10, pp. 1027-1040, Oct. 1999.
[21] G. C. Ejebe, J. Tong, J. G. Waight, J. G. Frame, X. Wang, and W. F. Tinney, "Available transfer capability calculations," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 13, no. 4, pp. 1521-1527, Nov. 1998.
[22] Y. Ou and C. Singh, "Assessment of available transfer capability and margins," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 17, no. 2, pp. 463-468, May 2002.
[23] P. Giorsetto and K. F. Utsurogi, "Development of a new procedure for reliability modeling of wind turbine generators," IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, vo1. 102, no. 1, pp. 134-143, Jan. 1983.
[24] R. Xu and D. Wunsch, "Survey of clustering algorithms," IEEE Trans. on Neural Networks, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 645-678, May 2005.
[25] J. C. O. Mello, A. C. G. Melo, and S. Granville, "Simultaneous transfer capability assessment by combining interior point methods and Monte Carlo simulation," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vo1. 12, no. 2, pp. 736-742, May 1997.
[26] Y. Cheng, T. S. Chung, C. Y. Chung, and C. W. Yu, "Dynamic voltage stability constrained atc calculation by a qss approach," Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 28, no. 6, pp. 408-412, Jul. 2006.
[27] C. Y. Chung, L. Wang, F. Howell, and P. Kundur, "Generation rescheduling methods to improve power transfer capability constrained by small-signal stability," IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 524-530, Feb. 2004.
[28] Iran Meteorological Organization, http://www.weather.ir.
[29] Y. Cui, Z. Bie, and X. Wang, "Study on calculation of probabilistic available transfer capability," in Proc. Int. Conf. on Power System Technology, PowerCon 2002, vol. 4, pp. 2052-2056, 2002.
[30] Reliability Test System Task Force of the Application of Probability Methods Subcommittee, "IEEE reliability test system," IEEE Trans. on Power Apparatus and Systems, vol. 98, no. 6, pp. 2047-2054, Nov./Dec. 1979.
[31] J. Ribrant and L. M. Bertling, "Survey of failures in wind power systems with focus on Swedish wind power plants during 1997-2005," IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 167-173, Mar. 2007.